Let's Chat Weather

It’s finally here. One of the most famous weeks in Louisville, KY – preparation at the Stoneybrook Kroger for the Garland of Roses.

Just kidding!!

This week does, however, mark a treasured tradition of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Looavul. Whether betting, drinking, wearing cool hats, or hanging out with the roses, Kentuckians and guests alike take part in one of the most famous horse races of the year.

Which means, weather preparation plays its own role in decision making for this massive event. So, what’s to be expected?

Well, even though the Derby is held on the first Saturday in May, the event grounds prepare well in advance. This means understanding how different weather parameters play a role in the safety and decision-making for all of the people that make this day special.

Over the next couple of days leading up to the race, a low-pressure system and subsequent frontal boundary will gradually work its way eastward within the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.

This will influence daily chances for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout today, Thursday, Friday, and into Saturday. Though the cumulative rainfall each day may trend near 0.10-0.30″, with locally higher amounts in thunderstorms, these totals will impact the upkeep of the track.

With thunderstorms comes a safety risk which ultimately affects the various groups of people that may be preparing on-site for the big day. Any strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible though more isolated in nature. Gusty winds near 35-50 mph may occur, but of course any higher wind gust cannot be ruled out. Frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and hail will be possible in any stronger storm. Thankfully, besides a breezy day on Thursday, winds outside of precipitation development are showing good agreement towards 5-10 mph, with gusts up to 15-20 mph.

But, what about Derby Day itself?

Even though an active pattern is expected this week, building high pressure and the exiting frontal boundary may bring drier conditions later Saturday. With a start time towards the early evening, it’s possible the actual race may avoid pesky rain showers. Of course, only time will tell how model guidance and real time conditions play out in the coming days. All we can do is watch and wait.

Nonetheless! There is hope.

Depending on the rain potential and cloud cover, high temperatures may rise to the lower to middle 60s. By race time, temperatures are likely to cool near the middle 50s. In addition, winds may continue to settle on the calmer side. So perhaps a fun hat and a nice jacket may serve multi-purpose in both fashion and weather preparedness (how convenient)!

As always, whether it’s a big-time event or wardrobe decision, Mother Nature plans to attend. So, stay weather aware, happy Derby Week, and good luck out there!

Especially to the Louisville Division Store Leader of the Year 😉